NBA DFS Breakdown (Monday, Jan. 17): Target Jazz-Lakers on MLK Day
Have a good MLK day! We have games all day, but we’re focusing on the main list of games for this article. Be sure to note that the main slate starts at 6:00 PM ET on FanDuel and 7:00 PM ET on DraftKings. To keep things simple, we’re going to exclude the Milwaukee/Atlanta game and focus only on games that start at 7:00 p.m. or later.
Let’s dive into some of the best games using FantasyLabs tools and metrics.
Also, remember that for large field tournaments you can use our Lineup Optimizer to effortlessly create up to 150 lineups, or use our Lineup Builder if you like to create your lineups at the hand.
Note: Leverage projections and scores/ratings may change throughout the day after the publication of this article. The NBA DFS landscape is changing rapidly. Check player models directly for any updates as we get closer to lockdown.
Luka Doncic is one of the few players with a cap of 70 points every time he enters the field. Tonight, he’ll get a huge pace differential against the fast-paced Thunder, where he should make a studious option.
Doncic flopped against Orlando on Saturday, which could lower his ownership, but he’s recorded a triple-double in two of his last four games and a double-double in three of four.
Russell Westbrook has cooled considerably since recording four triple-doubles in a row between Christmas and New Years. In six games since, he has recorded three games with less than 30 fantastic points.
His ownership will likely be down, but at just $8,100 on FanDuel, he should be on your radar. Brodie is priced at $9,400 on DraftKings, where he is a much less attractive option. Westbrook’s performances are hot and cold, so it’s worth tournament play in a game with a 230.5 over/under, the highest on the slate.
Derrick White came back from his five-game absence on Saturday and had 19 points, four rebounds, four assists, three blocks, three triples and a steal in just 25 minutes off the bench. He should be expected to play more minutes tonight as he returns to action, and at just $7,100 he’s quite the bargain.
Delete Murray has been tremendous in his last seven games, averaging 24.6 points, 9.4 assists, 8.3 rebounds and 2.3 steals while posting four double-doubles and a triple-double.
Tonight’s game with the Suns has a 227.5 over/under, the second highest on the slate. Murray has a solid Over/Under Opponent and a 65-point cap at both sites. He has become a benchmark to target on every slate available.
Donovan Mitchell comes in at $9,000 on DraftKings and $8,100 on FanDuel, where he has a trading odds of 94% and has the highest points/salary projection in our model.
His price is way too low considering the very favorable game with the Lakers due to the over/under opponent, pace differential and high implied game total. Spida has scored at least 30 points in three of its last four games.
CJ McCollum isn’t on the Blazers injury report for tonight’s game with the Magic, but he’s not a guy I would play with in any roster. He hasn’t played since December 4 due to a lung injury and the birth of his child, so there’s bound to be some rust. His return could certainly lower the value of Anfernee Simons, which has caught fire in recent weeks. Neither side is recommended tonight, although Simons is the cheaper and safer option of the two.
james lebron is still one of the highest options on any slate, so he’s our star stallion tonight against the Jazz. The game between the Jazz and the Lakers sports the highest/under on the slate at a whopping 230.5.
LeBron will need to be at his best to overcome one of the most prolific offenses in the league, and our model gives him a fantastic 70+ point cap at both sites. Over the season, he averaged 28.9 points, 7.5 rebounds, 6.5 assists, 2.8 actions and 2.9 triples. It will be his first meeting with the Jazz this season.
Scottie Barnes is priced at $6,300 on DraftKings but only $5,600 on FanDuel, where it has a 92% trading odds. Barnes has appeared in just one of the Raptors’ last three games with a knee injury, but his absence Saturday was for injury management, so there shouldn’t be any lingering effects tonight.
Barnes averaged 14.5 points, 7.9 rebounds, 3.5 assists and 1.9 shares on the season. His recent stretch down will likely hurt his ownership, making him a nice low-cost pivot in tournaments.
Bojan Bogdanovic has averaged 20.5 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.4 triples over his last eight games and has scored 20 points in six of eight games this span. Tonight, the sniper will get a very advantageous game against the Lakers. He’s a great game on both sites, but he’s especially valuable on FanDuel at just $5,400.
Pascal Siakam has had an incredible run lately, and his production over the past 10 games has brought his price to $9,200 on DraftKings and $9,900 on FanDuel.
During that span, Spicy P averaged 24.5 points, 10.0 rebounds, 6.6 assists, 1.6 steals, and 1.4 triples over nearly 40 minutes per game while racking up six double- doubles. He just finished a triple-double on 10/30/10 against Milwaukee on Saturday and should be in many lineups tonight as the Raptors take on the Heat.
Note: Siakam is eligible for PF on FanDuel and C on DraftKings.
Robert Covington is a guy who just can’t be ignored anymore. Its price is just $6,400 on DraftKings and $5,900 on FanDuel, though its cap is over 40 fantasy points on both sites.
Over his last five games, RoCo has averaged a ridiculous 14.2 points, 6.8 rebounds, 3.0 steals, 3.0 triples, 1.8 blocks and 1.0 assists. That overall production has earned him a fantastic 37 points per game with two showings of more than 40 fantastic points during that span. The game against Orlando offers him a more/less favorable opponent and a solid pace differential.
Chuma Okeke has averaged 7.5 points, 6.5 rebounds, 1.3 assists, 2.5 steals and 1.3 triples in four recent starts. With Wendell Carter (hamstring) still out of action, Okeke should be in the starting five again against Portland. Okeke is a bargain tonight at just $4,600 on DraftKings and $5,000 on FanDuel.
Rudy Gobert came back from a five-game absence on Sunday and showed no signs of rust, posting 18 points, 19 rebounds, two assists and two blocks against the Nuggets in 35 minutes.
His playing time and production means he’s ready to take on another full workload tonight against the Lakers. Gobert gets a great plus/minus opponent and huge pace differential and will play in one of the friendliest clashes for opposition centers.
Gobert’s price is down $400 ($8,300 DraftKings, $8,600 FanDuel) from his pre-protocol salary, so DFS players can take advantage of the discount without sacrificing any upside. Gobert is one of the best bang for your buck games on the entire list.
Deandre Ayton was ejected early from Sunday’s game with Detroit with an ankle injury, and JaVale McGee finished the game with 20 points, six boards and a block in 15 minutes.
In 10 starts, McGee averaged 12.8 points, 8.5 rebounds and 1.1 blocks. During that span, he posted three double-doubles and racked up at least 48 fantasy points on two occasions. Playing the second night of a straight set, it wouldn’t be surprising if Ayton sat out, making McGee fantastic value in a very friendly game with San Antonio.
by Chris Boucher performances have been mixed on the season as a whole, and that’s how they have been in nine games since his brief stint in the top five. Boucher averaged 9.1 points, 7.1 rebounds, 1.1 steals and 1.3 blocks over 24.9 minutes during that span. He also recorded three multi-block matches and a double-double in those nine games. His advantage is a game of 50 points, while his floor is at an all-time low. Boucher is a good tournament option, but it’s not a cash game.
Photo credit: Melissa Majchrzak/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Rudy Gobert (27) and Donovan Mitchell (45)