Russia's Oil Output Stays Flat in 2025, But 2026 Brings a 2% Increase
Russia's crude oil production in 2025 will remain steady at around 516 million tons, according to Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak. This figure equates to approximately 10.36 million barrels per day. In 2026, production is expected to rise by 2% to 525 million tons, or 10.54 million barrels per day, based on a conversion ratio of 7.33 barrels per ton. These figures are in line with Russia's medium-term goal of reaching 540 million tons annually over the next five years, which will require fresh investments in the industry.
Novak highlighted the shift towards hard-to-recover reserves, particularly on the Arctic shelf, as a key focus area. This move necessitates additional costs and investment, which the government aims to encourage through supportive measures.
Despite this, the global oil market remains in a delicate balance. Novak's stance on supply and demand aligns with Russia's OPEC+ partners, contrasting with the views of entities like the International Energy Agency and most forecasting agencies. These latter organizations predict a significant surplus in crude oil supply in 2026, while demand continues to fall short of optimistic forecasts.
Recent data from Kpler reveals a high level of oil on tankers, reaching 1.3 billion barrels, but storage hubs in the Caribbean and South Africa are only half-full. Meanwhile, inventories at Cushing, Oklahoma, are at their lowest since 2007. This mixed picture suggests that demand could still surprise to the upside, potentially driving oil prices higher, especially given ongoing geopolitical risks.
Source: Oilprice.com
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